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History doesn’t repeat – but it rhymes

“What has been will be again. What has been done will be done again… [Ecclesiastes 1:9]

7 years ago I sat at my trading desk in the City (London), glanzing over old charts of the Dow Jones Index.

For some reason I took a calculator and began noting down the difference in time between the old highs and lows. Soon I began to see how cyclical this index was. My greatest use of this knowledge was my public call on the day of the bear market low in March 2003. I told Bloomberg that it was over, and that a new bull market was starting.

I know this has little to do with the housing market, but in reality it has everything to do with everything around you. Everything is cyclical.

Housing market goes in cycles

Housing market goes in cycles

I started reading the works by Dewery, the founder of the Foundation for the Study of Cycles. I learned about cycles in war, in prosperity, in relationships, in life expectancy, and also in property.

I learned about the 18 year cycle in property, and I held off buying when I really needed to, back in 2007, because I knew the last property peak in the UK was in 1990, exactly 18 years earlier.

We are only 2 years into this property correction, and although history NEVER repeats exactly, it does tend to rhyme, and at no time in the past has the market begun its recovery after 2 years.

 

posted by Tom in Guide,Housing,Recession and have Comments (3)

3 Responses to “History doesn’t repeat – but it rhymes”

  1. strategie says:

    Damn, that sound’s so easy if you think about it.

  2. Property rental HK says:

    Brilliant article writing capacity which makes us understandable about the property related history and present and their comparisons also. Thanks sir.

  3. Mr Barns says:

    Hey, I read a lot of blogs on a daily basis and for the most part, people lack substance but, I just wanted to make a quick comment to say GREAT blog!…..I”ll be checking in on a regularly now….Keep up the good work! 🙂

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